Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:05:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87f4…ab60 crypto 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate89%209W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$34
14 days+$25
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$25
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +1.0% -8.6% 83% 7% -7.5%
≤30d 196 -0.3% -9.8% 88% 4% -8.3%
≤90d 196 -0.3% -9.8% 88% 4% -8.3%
all 235 -0.3% -9.8% 89% 3% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 3% -8.4%
10% -18.4% 2% -17.2%
15% -26.3% 1% -25.2%
20% -33.5% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses209 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage128d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $30 −$14 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$16 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $35 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $34 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 496 history records