Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x87f4…e4b4 crypto 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$258 (+1%) realized +$258 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate100%38W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$693per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$23
world 17% +$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 33 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 3% -8.5%
all 38 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 3% -8.7%
10% -16.7% 3% -17.4%
15% -24.7% 3% -25.4%
20% -32.1% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,019) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized+$258
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses38 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage93d
Avg bet$693
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $319 $319 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $320 +$1 +0%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 28 $210 +$111 +53%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $205 +$5 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $205 +$1 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $203 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 28 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 26? Apr 26 $1,156 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 23? Apr 25 $1,155 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 20 $1,035 +$45 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $986 +$68 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $317 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 16? Apr 16 $1,039 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 15? Apr 15 $224 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on April 15? Apr 15 $810 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 14? Apr 15 $1,031 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 13? Apr 13 $1,031 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on April 12? Apr 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $1,010 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 12? Apr 13 $191 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 11? Apr 12 $1,029 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 10? Apr 11 $1,028 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 9? Apr 10 $1,022 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 8? Apr 09 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $1,019 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $1,018 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $1,017 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $1,016 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on April 3? Apr 03 $783 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 2? Apr 03 $1,015 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 1? Apr 01 $1,014 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Apr 01 $1,013 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 31? Mar 31 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 31? Mar 31 $964 +$1 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $1,001 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on March 30? Mar 30 $416 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on March 30? Mar 30 $592 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 29? Mar 30 $1,007 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on March 28? Mar 29 $294 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $223 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $95 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $320 27d
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? BUY No 69¢ $14 36d
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? BUY No 70¢ $7 36d
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? BUY No 68¢ $11 36d
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? BUY No 67¢ $5 36d
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? BUY No 68¢ $5 36d
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? BUY No 65¢ $29 36d
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? BUY No 68¢ $23 36d
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? BUY No 66¢ $30 36d
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? BUY No 64¢ $19 36d
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? BUY No 63¢ $67 36d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 98¢ $205 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $205 45d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $203 60d
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $120 62d
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $110 63d
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 63d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 26? BUY No 100¢ $254 64d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 26? BUY No 100¢ $20 64d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 26? BUY No 100¢ $882 64d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $1,065 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $90 67d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 72¢ $1,080 70d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 69¢ $1,035 70d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $45 71d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $127 71d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $2 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.94 · official $318.94 (match) · 157 history records