Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87f1…e219 world 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% $0
other 29% +$1
politics 13% +$3
tech 4% $0
finance 4% $0
sports 1% +$3
weather 0% −$3
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 13 -1.1% -10.5% 38% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -1.1% -10.5% 38% 0% -9.6%
all 35 -4.9% -13.9% 54% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 6% -9.2%
10% -22.2% 6% -17.9%
15% -29.7% 6% -25.8%
20% -36.6% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage481d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 43¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $42 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $24 −$1 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $79 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $41 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $2 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files? Dec 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 27 $5 $0 -1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Apr 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days? Apr 10 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Apr 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 07 $6 +$4 +70%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 07 $44 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 04 $44 $0 -0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 04 $42 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on March 26? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump orders U.S. prisoners to El Salvador before April? Mar 28 $1 +$1 +50%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 27 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or below on March 27? Mar 27 $2 −$1 -91%
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? Mar 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Heathrow Airport reopen by Saturday 8 AM GMT? Mar 22 $45 $0 +1%
Will Jonathan Bailey win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "Wicked" Mar 05 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $42 0m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $42 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $21 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $17 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $24 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $43 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $39 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $35 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $40 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $40 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $0 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $0.94 (match) · 143 history records