trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $53 | $49 | −$4 (-7%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $45 | $43 | −$3 (-6%) |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $35 | $42 | +$7 (+19%) |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $50 | $41 | −$9 (-18%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $35 | $30 | −$5 (-13%) |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $34 | $29 | −$5 (-15%) |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $25 | $19 | −$6 (-23%) |
| Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $15 | $13 | −$3 (-17%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 14 | $10 | −$2 | -19% |
| Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $2 | −$1 | -86% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $13 | −$8 | -64% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$1 | +75% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $2 | −$1 | -73% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $5 | +$1 | +20% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $20 | +$3 | +13% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? | Mar 31 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? | Mar 11 | $1 | +$1 | +65% |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11? | Mar 11 | $1 | −$1 | -54% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)? | Mar 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C or below on Janua | Jan 14 | $34 | +$7 | +20% |
| Will CA Rosario Central win on 2025-10-05? | Oct 06 | $2 | +$1 | +45% |
| Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-01? | Oct 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will CA Independiente win on 2025-10-05? | Oct 05 | $1 | +$1 | +67% |
| Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Oct 02 | $1 | $0 | +19% |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur win on 2025-09-30? | Oct 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30? | Oct 01 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Ajax Amsterdam win on 2025-09-30? | Oct 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-30? | Sep 30 | $1 | +$1 | +69% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-30? | Sep 30 | $1 | $0 | +47% |
| Will CA Independiente win on 2025-09-28? | Sep 30 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Sep 30 | $70 | −$70 | -100% |
| Will Gonzalo García be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World | Jul 13 | $5 | −$1 | -20% |
| Will Liverpool win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Jul 13 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Warriors | Mar 16 | $11 | +$4 | +39% |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | Mar 16 | $10 | −$9 | -88% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 12 | $10 | −$9 | -90% |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Mar 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Mar 12 | $199 | −$199 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -19.1% | -26.8% | 43% | 43% | -24.1% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -19.1% | -26.8% | 43% | 43% | -24.1% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -17.7% | -25.5% | 38% | 38% | -23.9% |
| all | 30 | -34.1% | -40.4% | 37% | 37% | -74.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -40.4% | 37% | -74.8% |
| 10% | -46.1% | 23% | -77.2% |
| 15% | -51.3% | 23% | -79.4% |
| 20% | -56.1% | 13% | -81.4% |