Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:05:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87f0…0303 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,328 (-29%) realized −$1,350 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%13W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,275
7 days−$997
14 days−$997
30 days−$997
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$758
other 24% −$751
world 11% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -38.1% -44.0% 16% 16% -58.9%
≤30d 49 -38.1% -44.0% 16% 16% -58.9%
≤90d 53 -34.3% -40.5% 21% 21% -41.6%
all 55 -31.4% -38.0% 24% 24% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 24% -38.7%
10% -43.9% 22% -44.6%
15% -49.3% 18% -50.0%
20% -54.3% 15% -54.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$62 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$1,350
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses13 / 42
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage103d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $66 $88 +$22 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$24 -96%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$5 -27%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$17 -83%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -60%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $26 −$11 -43%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$54 +262%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -87%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $15 +$100 +650%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $35 +$18 +50%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $19 +$18 +97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 17 $149 −$149 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 17 $342 −$342 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $116 −$116 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $498 −$498 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$20 +196%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $71 −$34 -47%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$282 +276%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $1,070 −$1,068 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 75¢ $66 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? SELL Yes 9¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? SELL Yes 9¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 2h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 3h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 19h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 20h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 25h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 25h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.59 · official $87.29 (match) · 114 history records