Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

87
0x87ef…da18
crypto · 57 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
−$2,712 -30%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,648 · open −$67
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$173
Realized−$2,648
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage190d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 3 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $94 $100 +$6 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 39¢ 10¢ $100 $27 −$73 (-73%)
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-13? No 37¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18? No 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 7AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-24? No 16¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-31? No 56¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? No 73¢ 0¢ $804 $0 −$804 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 6AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will AS Roma vs. AC Milan end in a draw? No 68¢ 0¢ $2,001 $0 −$2,001 (-100%)
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-13? No 35¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 12AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22? No 48¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? No 35¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $90 +$7 +8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 28 $36 +$111 +306%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-14? Feb 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-13? Feb 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-13? Feb 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 02 $102 +$98 +96%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? Feb 01 $1,031 +$500 +48%
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? Jan 31 $804 −$804 -100%
Will SS Lazio vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? Jan 31 $600 +$283 +47%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-31? Jan 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Como 1907 vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Jan 26 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Genoa CFC vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Jan 25 $700 +$329 +47%
Will AS Roma vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Jan 25 $2,001 −$2,001 -100%
Will Fulham FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Jan 24 $500 +$195 +39%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Jan 24 $700 +$286 +41%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US Lecce vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? Jan 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-18? Jan 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 08 $100 +$122 +122%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 08 $100 +$203 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2PM ET Jan 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 02 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 02 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 7AM ET Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 6AM ET Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 5AM ET Jan 01 $1 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 01 $1 +$2 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 10PM ET Jan 01 $3 +$4 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 01 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 01 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 1AM ET Jan 01 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 12AM ET Jan 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 12PM ET Dec 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Dec 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 7AM ET Dec 31 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 6AM ET Dec 31 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Dec 31 $4 −$3 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Dec 31 $2 −$1 -31%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 31 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Dec 31 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 5AM ET Dec 31 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Dec 31 $3 +$3 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 74% −$1,683
other 23% −$942
crypto 2% −$8
world 1% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 10¢ $4 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $3 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 10¢ $93 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $2 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $1 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $2 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $10 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $1 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $1 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -45.9% -51.0% 50% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 2 -45.9% -51.0% 50% 0% -7.2%
≤90d 2 -45.9% -51.0% 50% 0% -7.2%
all 54 -18.0% -25.8% 41% 33% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 33% -36.4%
10% -32.9% 33% -42.5%
15% -39.4% 30% -48.0%
20% -45.3% 17% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.11 · official $173.11 (match) · 206 history records