Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87ed…db97 sports 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,006 (-22%) realized −$1,003 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%42W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$141
14 days−$43
30 days−$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$903
other 1% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -17.7% -25.5% 42% 42% -28.5%
≤30d 43 -6.9% -15.8% 40% 40% -21.1%
≤90d 112 -15.5% -23.6% 38% 38% -28.7%
all 112 -15.5% -23.6% 38% 38% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 38% -28.7%
10% -30.9% 36% -35.5%
15% -37.5% 36% -41.8%
20% -43.7% 34% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$36 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$1,003
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses42 / 70
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions4
Markets (closed)112 / 116
History coverage72d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $171 +$99 +58%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $96 −$95 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $34 +$13 +37%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $137 −$135 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $33 −$32 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $18 +$32 +186%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $33 +$33 +102%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $49 +$51 +105%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 11 $40 −$39 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $222 +$268 +121%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $20 +$30 +144%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $23 −$22 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 06 $23 −$22 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $19 −$19 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $240 +$26 +11%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 04 $22 +$23 +106%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 04 $45 −$44 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 04 $20 +$16 +77%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $52 +$48 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $103 −$101 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 26 $24 −$24 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $115 +$85 +73%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 24 $68 −$67 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 23 $82 −$81 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 22 $53 −$52 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $31 +$28 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 20 $62 −$61 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 May 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 May 19 $52 −$51 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 19 $2 +$8 +356%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5 May 19 $6 +$2 +36%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 19 $50 +$45 +91%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 19 $14 +$29 +212%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5) May 18 $33 −$32 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 12 $28 −$28 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) May 12 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-12.5) May 12 $73 +$77 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 90¢ $17 46m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 90¢ $41 46m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 90¢ $34 47m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 90¢ $141 47m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 90¢ $20 47m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 90¢ $11 47m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 90¢ $6 47m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 56¢ $57 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 56¢ $57 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 57¢ $58 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 47¢ $47 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 48¢ $49 17h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 54¢ $55 3d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 60¢ $30 3d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $26 3d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $26 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $33 4d
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 5d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $66 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $18 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 5d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $52 6d
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) BUY Spurs 39¢ $40 6d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $49 7d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Spurs 36¢ $33 8d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Spurs 41¢ $42 8d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Spurs 43¢ $44 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.80 · official $35.80 (match) · 275 history records