Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87eb…582f crypto 161 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,580 (-31%) realized −$1,580 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%36W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$481
14 days−$1,032
30 days−$1,018
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$1,340
sports 19% −$331
other 16% −$274
weather 2% −$79
world 1% +$56
culture 0% −$4
finance 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -30.0% -36.6% 28% 28% -45.5%
≤30d 64 -43.6% -48.9% 20% 20% -55.3%
≤90d 81 -40.0% -45.7% 23% 21% -49.5%
all 160 -44.4% -49.7% 22% 20% -45.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.7% 20% -45.9%
10% -54.5% 18% -51.1%
15% -58.9% 16% -55.8%
20% -62.9% 13% -60.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$23 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,580
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses36 / 124
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)160 / 161
History coverage104d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 160 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $92 −$88 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $32 +$88 +281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$29 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $47 +$65 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $205 −$195 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$11 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $111 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $105 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $106 +$94 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $47 +$60 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$48 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$32 +301%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 06 $36 −$25 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$29 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 06 $17 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 06 $20 −$11 -52%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 06 $35 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 06 $30 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $112 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $47 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $205 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $228 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $216 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 420 history records