Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
87 0x87e9…46df world 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$32 (+1%) realized +$31 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate42%23W / 32L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$12
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$34
other 19% +$1
sports 14% −$5
politics 7% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.0% -12.2% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 +86.3% +68.5% 39% 9% -8.8%
≤90d 39 +53.2% +38.6% 41% 13% -8.9%
all 55 +37.1% +24.0% 42% 13% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.0% 13% -9.0%
10% +12.1% 4% -17.7%
15% +1.3% 4% -25.7%
20% -8.6% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +73% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses23 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage490d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $80 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $59 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $7 −$1 -18%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $56 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $205 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $95 +$11 +12%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $75 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $223 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $59 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $58 +$2 +3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $58 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $143 −$6 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $11 +$1 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $64 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $79 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $51 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $83 +$17 +21%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $56 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $62 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $48 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $17 +$3 +18%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $6 +$4 +58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $31 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $13 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $5 +$1 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $40 +$4 +9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $8 $0 -5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $17 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $225 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $224 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $224 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $224 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $5 $0 -4%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 09 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 18–25? Apr 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will 2 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 20 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $44 20m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $80 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $80 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $1 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $1 46h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $1 46h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $1 46h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $1 46h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $1 46h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $56 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $56 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $53 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $53 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $16 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $4 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $4 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.72 · official $45.44 · 262 history records