trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -12.6% | -20.9% | 0% | 0% | -16.6% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +20.7% | +9.2% | 38% | 38% | -5.4% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +16.5% | +5.4% | 30% | 30% | -6.8% |
| all | 11 | +14.3% | +3.4% | 27% | 27% | -7.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +3.4% | 27% | -7.0% |
| 10% | -6.5% | 18% | -15.9% |
| 15% | -15.5% | 9% | -24.0% |
| 20% | -23.8% | 9% | -31.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | $13 | $13 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | No | 76¢ | 80¢ | $8 | $9 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 4¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-46%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Jun 15 | $66 | −$5 | -8% |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | -18% |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Jun 08 | $13 | −$1 | -5% |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | -12% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | Jun 01 | $4 | $0 | +11% |
| Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | Jun 01 | $6 | $0 | -4% |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | May 25 | $4 | +$7 | +178% |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the | May 25 | $17 | +$4 | +23% |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? | Apr 19 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? | Apr 01 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Mar 14 | $3 | $0 | -9% |