Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

87 0x87e6…9c8a sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2,131 (-24%) realized −$2,053 · open −$78

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip

Net edge-53%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%6W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$353per market

Trades / day5.7pace

Fees−$134est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$452now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$1,337

7 days−$1,637

14 days−$2,117

30 days−$2,117

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-51.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-78.8%	-80.8%	12%	12%	-76.7%
≤30d	21	-45.8%	-51.0%	29%	29%	-37.2%
≤90d	21	-45.8%	-51.0%	29%	29%	-37.2%
all	21	-45.8%	-51.0%	29%	29%	-37.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-51.0%	29%	-37.2%
10%	-55.7%	29%	-43.2%
15%	-59.9%	29%	-48.7%
20%	-63.9%	14%	-53.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -46% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -31% → late -59% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$315 vs −$267 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.47 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$452

Realized−$2,053

Unrealized−$78

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses6 / 15

Est. fees paid−$134

Open positions4

Markets (closed)21 / 25

History coverage12d

Avg bet$353

Trades / day5.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova	Katerina Siniakova	36¢	38¢	$155	$161	+$6 (+4%)
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke	Jay Clarke	38¢	35¢	$155	$143	−$12 (-8%)
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli	Federico Bondioli	38¢	20¢	$155	$84	−$71 (-46%)
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle	Enrico Dalla Valle	33¢	32¢	$65	$64	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$157	−$155	-99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jun 16	$598	−$594	-99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Jun 16	$499	−$490	-98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$709	−$99	-14%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 14	$157	−$155	-99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	Jun 14	$153	−$150	-98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 11	$225	−$222	-99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner	Jun 11	$337	+$227	+67%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner	Jun 07	$599	−$555	-93%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jun 07	$1,059	+$494	+47%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Jun 07	$664	+$237	+36%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Jun 07	$100	−$99	-99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jun 07	$676	−$333	-49%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Jun 07	$243	−$239	-99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Jun 06	$826	−$484	-59%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jun 06	$97	−$95	-98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Jun 06	$73	−$71	-98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner	Jun 06	$266	−$266	-100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner	Jun 06	$338	+$336	+100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner	Jun 06	$189	+$471	+249%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner	Jun 05	$331	+$125	+38%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle	BUY Enrico Dalla Valle	33¢	$66	54m
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke	BUY Jay Clarke	38¢	$158	1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova	BUY Katerina Siniakova	36¢	$158	1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli	BUY Federico Bondioli	38¢	$158	2h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY Senegal	61¢	$157	17h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner	BUY Vici Gaming	77¢	$352	21h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner	BUY Vici Gaming	72¢	$246	21h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner	BUY Vici Gaming	43¢	$89	21h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner	BUY Vici Gaming	43¢	$113	21h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner	BUY Vici Gaming	43¢	$127	21h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner	BUY Vici Gaming	30¢	$56	21h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner	BUY Vici Gaming	29¢	$113	21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Natus Vincere	50¢	$103	39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL Natus Vincere	58¢	$55	40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL Natus Vincere	65¢	$541	40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Natus Vincere	64¢	$606	45h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$157	3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	BUY Steve Garcia	43¢	$153	3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	57¢	$225	5d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner	BUY Team Yandex	59¢	$337	9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner	SELL LGD Gaming	99¢	$123	9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BUY Team Yandex	37¢	$113	9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BUY LGD Gaming	28¢	$36	9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BUY Team Yandex	52¢	$113	9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BUY Team Yandex	58¢	$337	9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	SELL Team Yandex	100¢	$1,395	9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	BUY Team Yandex	67¢	$180	9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	BUY Team Yandex	56¢	$112	9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	BUY Team Yandex	55¢	$112	9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	BUY Team Yandex	61¢	$225	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $451.82 · official $451.82 (match) · 71 history records