Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:11:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
87 0x87e1…a8d4 crypto 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate95%54W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$3
other 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 6% -6.5%
≤30d 57 +2.3% -7.5% 95% 16% -9.0%
≤90d 57 +2.3% -7.5% 95% 16% -9.0%
all 57 +2.3% -7.5% 95% 16% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 16% -9.0%
10% -16.3% 5% -17.7%
15% -24.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -31.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses54 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage16d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 85¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$3 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 14d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $15 14d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 14d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $15 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.74 · official $5.62 (match) · 118 history records