Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:44:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
87 0x87dd…fb3b other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%53W / 69L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$2
world 40% +$8
politics 14% +$4
crypto 2% +$2
economics 1% $0
sports 1% +$2
culture 1% +$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 29 -0.7% -10.2% 34% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 33 +0.6% -9.0% 36% 3% -9.3%
all 122 +1.6% -8.1% 43% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 3% -9.2%
10% -16.9% 2% -17.9%
15% -24.9% 2% -25.8%
20% -32.3% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses53 / 69
Open positions3
Markets (closed)122 / 125
History coverage450d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $80 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $80 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $17 +$1 +5%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $120 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $78 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $106 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $23 $0 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $102 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $95 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $105 +$6 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $11 −$2 -14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $215 −$1 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $81 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $277 +$1 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $127 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $95 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $6 $0 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $97 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $22 −$4 -16%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $4 −$1 -19%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $101 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $113 −$2 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $87 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $109 +$5 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $7 +$3 +42%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $401 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $546 +$2 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $1,295 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Aug 20 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 20 $21 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? Aug 19 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 15 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $21 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $70 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $10 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $80 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $80 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $80 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $42 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $37 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $78 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $78 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $78 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $42 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $42 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $61 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $17 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $7 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $72 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $14 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.43 · official $8.10 (match) · 519 history records