Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:29:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87dd…b465 world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%4W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$1
other 26% $0
economics 8% $0
politics 6% −$2
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 9 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 27 -1.3% -10.7% 15% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses4 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage396d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $61 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $51 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $3 −$1 -29%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $53 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $23 −$2 -9%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $24 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 10 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Jul 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Norrie win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in Jul 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jul 07 $7 $0 -1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $34 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $16 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $11 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $37 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $24 8h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $46 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $13 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $13 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $32 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $51 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $60 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $60 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $40 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $5 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $5 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $0 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $2 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $3 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $0 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $33 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $19 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.72 · official $26.72 (match) · 188 history records