Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87dc…a465 sports 849 markets active 1h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate63%533W / 316L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$68
14 days−$94
30 days−$764
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$106
other 33% −$193
politics 2% +$11
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -44.6% -49.9% 28% 11% -40.4%
≤30d 456 -19.9% -27.5% 54% 41% -21.3%
≤90d 620 -10.3% -18.8% 64% 47% -11.7%
all 849 -5.2% -14.3% 63% 45% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 45% -9.9%
10% -22.5% 26% -18.5%
15% -30.0% 14% -26.4%
20% -36.8% 7% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses533 / 316
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)849 / 849
History coverage261d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 849 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $19 −$11 -58%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 14 $3 $0 -7%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $12 −$9 -78%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $12 +$1 +6%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 12 $11 +$1 +13%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marie Mettraux vs Anja Stankovic Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $11 $0 +4%
Ilkley: Alex Bolt vs Keegan Smith Jun 10 $11 −$11 -99%
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan Jun 10 $5 $0 -10%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $7 $0 +1%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $39 −$7 -18%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 10 $5 $0 -5%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $40 −$14 -34%
Cattolica: Michele Ribecai vs Franco Agamenone Jun 08 $2 +$7 +325%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $15 −$1 -3%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Lloyd Harris Jun 08 $10 $0 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $30 $0 -1%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Ilkley: Harry Wendelken vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Libema Open (Doubles): Bergs/Rinderknech vs Galloway/Peers Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 08 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Cattolica: Liam Broady vs Ioannis Xilas Jun 08 $5 −$2 -36%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $27 −$3 -10%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic Jun 07 $5 $0 +7%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $5 −$1 -29%
Libema Open, Qualification: James McCabe vs Alexander Maarten Jong Jun 07 $20 −$1 -6%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi Jun 07 $1 +$1 +78%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $20 +$1 +3%
ITF Casablanca: Marta Soriano Santiago vs Nina Vargova Jun 07 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 $0 -2%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $10 +$2 +16%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Aoi Ito Jun 07 $25 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman Jun 07 $17 $0 -2%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 07 $8 −$8 -99%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Philip Henning Jun 07 $5 +$5 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $5 +$1 +27%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 07 $34 +$5 +13%
Libema Open, Qualification: Alec Deckers vs Bernard Tomic Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Helioevaara/Patten Jun 06 $6 +$2 +26%
ITF Monastir: Andre Lukosiute vs Chloe Noel Jun 06 $10 +$2 +16%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Alex Molcan Jun 06 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 29¢ $6 51m
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Alvaro Guillen Meza 76¢ $6 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 24¢ $2 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Alvaro Guillen Meza 12¢ $1 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 91¢ $11 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 44h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 44h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 80¢ $3 46h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 73¢ $3 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Petra Marcinko 77¢ $3 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa SELL Alycia Parks 19¢ $3 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa BUY Alycia Parks 86¢ $12 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 85¢ $13 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 79¢ $12 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 51¢ $2 3d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 81¢ $12 4d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi SELL Brazil 99¢ $12 4d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marie Mettraux vs Anja Stankovic BUY Anja Stankovic 82¢ $1 4d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 87¢ $11 4d
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw SELL Felix Balshaw 81¢ $12 4d
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 77¢ $11 4d
Ilkley: Alex Bolt vs Keegan Smith BUY Alex Bolt 79¢ $11 5d
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan SELL Harmony Tan 74¢ $5 5d
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja SELL Laura Samson 83¢ $7 5d
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Laura Samson 81¢ $7 5d
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan BUY Harmony Tan 81¢ $5 5d
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi SELL Dalma Galfi 44¢ $13 5d
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 69¢ $20 5d
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi SELL Dalma Galfi 63¢ $1 5d
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi SELL Dalma Galfi 71¢ $18 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1828 history records