Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:16:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
87 0x87da…61cc crypto 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+1%) realized +$108 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate98%84W / 2L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$22
14 days+$25
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$12
other 4% −$9
sports 2% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +25.6% +13.6% 71% 57% -1.8%
≤30d 13 +15.9% +4.8% 85% 31% -3.9%
≤90d 34 +7.8% -2.5% 94% 15% -5.9%
all 86 +3.8% -6.1% 98% 8% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 8% -7.7%
10% -15.1% 3% -16.5%
15% -23.3% 2% -24.6%
20% -30.8% 2% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$27 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.83 per $1 lost it wins $2.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$108
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses84 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)86 / 89
History coverage153d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $18 $16 −$1 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 84¢ 3¢ $68 $3 −$65 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $87 +$17 +20%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$38 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $39 +$2 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 10? Jun 11 $37 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 10 $36 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $34 +$2 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 03 $31 +$2 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 20? Jun 01 $69 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $97 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19? May 20 $67 +$2 +3%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 18? May 19 $67 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 18 $65 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 21? May 16 $61 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 16 $95 +$6 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 17? Apr 21 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? Apr 16 $59 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 11 $58 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $58 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $57 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $51 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? Apr 06 $76 +$25 +33%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 2? Apr 04 $126 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 01 $57 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 31? Apr 01 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $67 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 29? Mar 30 $67 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $66 +$1 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 26? Mar 27 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 22? Mar 26 $65 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 18? Mar 19 $63 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 17? Mar 17 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 13? Mar 16 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 12? Mar 13 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 10? Mar 11 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 9? Mar 10 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 7? Mar 09 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 6? Mar 07 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 5? Mar 06 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 4? Mar 05 $61 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 3? Mar 04 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on March 2? Mar 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 02 $55 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $62 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $18 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $38 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $50 40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $87 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $40 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $39 7d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 10? BUY No 94¢ $37 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $36 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 93¢ $34 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? BUY Yes 93¢ $31 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 84¢ $69 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 20? BUY No 98¢ $69 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19? BUY No 97¢ $67 31d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $67 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $65 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $97 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $61 59d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $61 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? BUY No 96¢ $59 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 99¢ $58 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $58 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? BUY No 99¢ $57 73d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? BUY No 93¢ $95 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 5? BUY No 99¢ $51 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? BUY Yes 74¢ $76 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 2? BUY No 99¢ $126 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 31? BUY No 99¢ $67 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.81 · official $56.81 (match) · 173 history records