Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
87 0x87d8…7197 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$170 (+0%) realized +$109 · open +$61
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate90%26W / 3L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1,835per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$154
7 days+$154
14 days+$154
30 days+$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$2
economics 31% +$6
other 21% +$220
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 15 +1.8% -7.9% 80% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 18 +2.1% -7.6% 83% 6% -9.2%
all 29 +1.8% -7.9% 90% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 3% -9.3%
10% -16.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -24.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$3,319) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.36 per $1 lost it wins $6.36
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses26 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage190d
Avg bet$1,835
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $138 $199 +$61 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $371 +$2 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,498 +$102 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $892 +$8 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,659 +$41 +1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,388 +$15 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $8,571 +$15 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $8,602 −$10 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $8,642 −$10 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 15 $8,654 −$10 -0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29? May 27 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M May 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 18? May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? May 27 $2 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co May 27 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Manuel Saavedra win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral elec Apr 19 $1 $0 +8%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Apr 19 $3 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $200 end of February? Mar 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13? Mar 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 12 $10 $0 +0%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting Feb 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)? Feb 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 22 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 21? Dec 21 $4,274 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 21? Dec 21 $3,319 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on December 9? Dec 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 9? Dec 21 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $138 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $396 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $576 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $148 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $502 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.68 · official $206.68 (match) · 143 history records