Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:26:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87d6…551a sports 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$125 (-3%) realized −$177 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%62W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$57
14 days−$280
30 days−$306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$101
other 9% −$101
politics 0% +$25
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -62.5% -66.1% 0% 0% -56.8%
≤30d 125 -9.7% -18.3% 42% 41% -17.7%
≤90d 142 -5.5% -14.5% 44% 42% -13.4%
all 142 -5.5% -14.5% 44% 42% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 42% -13.4%
10% -22.7% 42% -21.7%
15% -30.1% 40% -29.2%
20% -37.0% 32% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$177
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses62 / 80
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions6
Markets (closed)142 / 148
History coverage47d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 19¢ 20¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 22¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Marta Kostyuk 55¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Volynets (+1.5) Kostyuk 65¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Dayana Yastremska Dayana Yastremska 39¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Over 3.5 62¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
James Comey arrested by April 30? No 23¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Mayar Sherif Dalma Galfi 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Tatsuro Taira 60¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Anna Kalinskaya vs. Maja Chwalinska: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 41¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Nuno Borges vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Over 3.5 62¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Osorio (+1.5) Kalinskaya 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Flavio Cobolli vs. Learner Tien: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Over 3.5 65¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will Savinho be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Marina Bassols Ribera vs. Emiliana Arango: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5) Cerundolo 55¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -87%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $49 −$2 -5%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $10 −$2 -24%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Cole Palmer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Phil Foden score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -64%
Will Robert Lewandowski score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -83%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 03 $78 −$77 -99%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $35 −$8 -23%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $35 +$15 +44%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $45 −$44 -98%
Anna Kalinskaya vs. Maja Chwalinska: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $18 −$18 -98%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $22 +$10 +44%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $10 +$11 +105%
Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5) Jun 01 $13 +$8 +62%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $2 +$8 +388%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $56 −$31 -56%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $9 −$1 -8%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) Jun 01 $34 −$33 -98%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $33 −$33 -99%
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $33 +$17 +50%
Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $21 +$10 +46%
Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $13 +$9 +65%
Set Handicap: Chwalinska (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Jun 01 $13 −$13 -99%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5) Jun 01 $27 −$26 -98%
Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Trent Alexander-Arnold score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -97%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $20 −$20 -99%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 01 $6 −$6 -97%
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5) May 31 $16 +$15 +90%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 31 $6 −$1 -13%
Jesper de Jong vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $20 +$10 +51%
Jaime Faria vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $14 +$7 +48%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Raphael Collignon: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $20 +$11 +52%
Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Martin Landaluce: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $66 $0 +0%
Coco Gauff vs. Anastasia Potapova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 30 $13 +$21 +158%
Moise Kouame vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $11 +$10 +86%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Francisco Comesana: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $14 +$7 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $3 +$3 +90%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio May 30 $8 +$7 +90%
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5) May 30 $48 −$15 -32%
Francisco Cerundolo vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $20 −$1 -4%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Learner Tien: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 24¢ $5 1h
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 29¢ $6 1h
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 1h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 1h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $18 1h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 51¢ $47 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 19¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $27 1h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $49 20h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 20h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 21h
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 22¢ $8 8d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $8 8d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 4¢ $4 8d
Will Cole Palmer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Phil Foden score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Robert Lewandowski score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $14 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 55¢ $64 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea BUY Sorana Cirstea 35¢ $25 12d
Anna Kalinskaya vs. Maja Chwalinska: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 41¢ $18 12d
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 69¢ $35 12d
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 64¢ $35 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider BUY Madison Keys 46¢ $10 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider SELL Madison Keys 31¢ $23 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.89 · official $113.89 (match) · 304 history records