Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:31:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

87
0x87d3…a656
world · 32 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses9 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage307d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 1 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 65¢ 68¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $8 −$2 -30%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $3 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $33 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 29 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 14 $17 −$1 -8%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $53 $0 -1%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 13 $0 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy purchases >5000 BTC August 5-11? Aug 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $3 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% −$2
other 20% −$2
politics 17% $0
sports 17% $0
crypto 6% $0
culture 5% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $4 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $41 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $36 5h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $0 5h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $6 5h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 11h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $1 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $7 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $5 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $2 18h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 25h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $9 30h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $8 33h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $3 34h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $2 34h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $8 38h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $7 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $41 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.2% -11.5% 56% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 11 -1.8% -11.1% 55% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 11 -1.8% -11.1% 55% 0% -10.1%
all 31 -0.9% -10.3% 29% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records