Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:13:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87d3…0e8b politics 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 582d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$15,241 (+26%) realized +$15,402 · open −$161
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%28W / 39L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$746per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2,822now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days−$7,444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% +$26,176
tech 25% −$8,489
other 11% +$99
crypto 7% −$1,939
world 1% −$439
sports 0% −$242
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +15.0% +4.0% 100% 100% +4.0%
≤30d 2 -42.5% -48.0% 50% 50% -94.9%
≤90d 8 -69.7% -72.6% 25% 25% -89.3%
all 67 +39.9% +26.6% 42% 39% +33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.6% 39% +33.5%
10% +14.5% 33% +20.7%
15% +3.4% 31% +9.1%
20% -6.7% 28% -1.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -164% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$540) neutral
Persistence
early +82% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
18.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,105 vs −$411 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

582d coverage
Net worth$2,822
Realized+$15,402
Unrealized−$161
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses28 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)67 / 78
History coverage582d
Avg bet$746
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $822 $814 −$9 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $732 $730 −$2 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $388 $387 −$2 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $360 $359 −$2 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $105 $118 +$12 (+12%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $120 $70 −$50 (-42%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $110 $68 −$42 (-39%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $65 $58 −$8 (-12%)
Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes $4 $22 +$18 (+433%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes $76 $1 −$75 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Jun 26 $186 +$28 +15%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $13,719 −$7,472 -54%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? May 27 $308 +$84 +27%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? May 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on May 09 $366 −$365 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on May 09 $211 −$211 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Apr 28 $246 −$246 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on Apr 27 $136 −$136 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 03 $322 −$322 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $1,476 +$30 +2%
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $530 −$357 -67%
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $3,146 +$2,866 +91%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 05 $25 +$6 +23%
Will China blockade Taiwan by December 31? Nov 25 $85 −$42 -50%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Nov 24 $27 +$77 +288%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Nov 22 $100 −$30 -30%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Nov 18 $60 −$38 -63%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 24 $2,003 −$1,458 -73%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 16 $1,040 −$560 -54%
Will PAS win a majority of seats in Moldova elections? Sep 30 $32 +$113 +354%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $290 +$55 +19%
Will the Patriotic Electoral Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Moldo Sep 27 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Sep 27 $540 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 03 $90 +$11 +12%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%? Jun 06 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 06 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? May 31 $540 +$610 +113%
Will George Simion win by 6–12%? May 21 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? May 21 $847 −$847 -100%
Will George Simion win by 0–6%? May 21 $860 −$860 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 21 $234 +$2,775 +1185%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $42 −$36 -85%
Will Mircea Geoană win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cristian-Vasile Terheș win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $6,838 +$4,588 +67%
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof May 08 $2,385 +$75 +3%
Will Victor Ponta advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff May 07 $962 −$499 -52%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 05 $356 +$622 +174%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? May 04 $456 +$749 +164%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 04 $2,764 +$9,626 +348%
Will Nicușor Dan advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff? May 04 $1,388 +$1,337 +96%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 30 $4,408 +$887 +20%
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 30 $534 +$411 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $205 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $370 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $399 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $749 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $841 2h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL Yes 23¢ $205 3d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 4d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 5d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 5d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 5d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 6d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 6d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 6d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 6d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 6d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 6d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 6d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $24 6d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 6d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 6d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 6d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 6d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 6d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 6d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,821.92 · official $2,821.92 (match) · 2133 history records