Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
87 0x87d2…94a9 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$177 (-8%) realized −$8 · open −$169
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$1,378now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$61
14 days+$61
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$232
sports 11% +$161
world 2% −$36
tech 2% −$44
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +28.4% +16.2% 71% 57% +1.4%
≤30d 9 +9.4% -1.0% 56% 44% -2.2%
≤90d 11 -10.5% -19.0% 45% 36% -6.6%
all 11 -10.5% -19.0% 45% 36% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 36% -6.6%
10% -26.8% 36% -15.5%
15% -33.8% 27% -23.7%
20% -40.3% 18% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$32 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$1,378
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$169
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage33d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $945 −$55 (-5%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $417 −$83 (-17%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-22%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 25¢ $35 $6 −$29 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$47 +93%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$86 +170%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $152 −$112 -73%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$36 -71%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $151 +$66 +43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$9 +34%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 21 $18 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 20 $5 −$1 -14%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? May 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $98 32m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $137 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $40 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 18h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 19h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 19h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $26 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $34 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 25h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $145 25h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $49 25h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $132 25h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $190 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,028 25h
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $4 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 27d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 27d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $15 32d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 32d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 32d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 32d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,377.72 · official $1,377.72 (match) · 29 history records