Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

87
0x87d1…3da3
sports · 167 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$19 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$43 · open −$37
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$757
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses76 / 58
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions33
Markets (closed)134 / 167
History coverage34d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 33 History 134 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$8
14 days+$36
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 78¢ 80¢ $67 $69 +$2 (+4%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 69¢ 86¢ $54 $67 +$13 (+25%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $62 $64 +$2 (+3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 76¢ 96¢ $49 $62 +$13 (+27%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $38 $45 +$7 (+18%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 82¢ 98¢ $35 $42 +$7 (+19%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 88¢ 91¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $29 $34 +$5 (+16%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes $25 $33 +$8 (+30%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 83¢ 90¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+9%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 71¢ 96¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+36%)
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No 89¢ 97¢ $20 $21 +$2 (+9%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 77¢ 98¢ $16 $21 +$4 (+27%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 88¢ 90¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 34¢ 26¢ $24 $18 −$6 (-25%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 68¢ 47¢ $23 $16 −$7 (-31%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 32¢ 28¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 82¢ 69¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-16%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 70¢ 52¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-26%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 58¢ 72¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+25%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? No 76¢ 99¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+30%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $7 −$3 -43%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $11 +$8 +70%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $54 +$27 +50%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $73 −$67 -93%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $43 +$4 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $12 +$3 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $19 +$20 +107%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $91 +$5 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $70 −$11 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $12 +$6 +54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $6 +$1 +11%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $22 +$8 +34%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Jun 02 $28 +$12 +44%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $36 +$26 +72%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $46 +$15 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $28 −$26 -93%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $27 +$19 +72%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $11 −$9 -80%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $71 −$42 -60%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $6 +$1 +21%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -12%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox May 17 $34 −$5 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $49 +$22 +45%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 May 11 $16 +$24 +146%
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5 May 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $14 +$20 +140%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $18 +$16 +90%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $17 +$18 +109%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Hellas Verona FC vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5 May 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $3 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner May 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $40 +$30 +75%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 +$2 +62%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Madison Keys vs Nikola Bartunkova May 10 $7 +$8 +115%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 10 $19 −$2 -13%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) May 10 $25 +$29 +119%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Jiri Lehecka May 10 $16 −$6 -36%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Hailey Baptiste May 10 $8 +$2 +31%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs The Huns Esports (+1.5) May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% −$63
sports 32% +$67
other 15% −$2
politics 11% +$1
finance 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 87¢ $26 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 90¢ $7 14h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $3 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $4 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $1 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $4 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $3 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $24 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 25¢ $6 16h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 83¢ $11 16h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $5 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $13 17h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? BUY Yes $2 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 90¢ $36 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 18h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $7 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $20 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $11 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 21h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 28¢ $6 21h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 21h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $2 21h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1 21h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $3 21h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +6.5% -3.6% 64% 45% -11.3%
≤30d 31 -7.0% -15.9% 58% 48% -8.4%
≤90d 134 -1.8% -11.2% 57% 51% -8.0%
all 134 -1.8% -11.2% 57% 51% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 51% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 40% -16.8%
15% -27.4% 30% -24.8%
20% -34.5% 25% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $756.79 · official $756.83 (match) · 891 history records