Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:18:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x87d1…3744 sports 1245 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,232 (+4%) realized +$2,243 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%710W / 528L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Fees−$852est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$869
7 days−$229
14 days+$153
30 days+$398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$865
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 -1.2% -10.6% 57% 56% -10.7%
≤30d 545 +2.7% -7.1% 59% 59% -8.7%
≤90d 1238 +3.4% -6.5% 57% 52% -8.3%
all 1238 +3.4% -6.5% 57% 52% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 52% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 51% -17.0%
15% -23.6% 37% -25.1%
20% -31.1% 22% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$31 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$682
Realized+$2,243
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses710 / 528
Est. fees paid−$852
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1238 / 1245
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Katarina Kuzmova 68¢ 99¢ $99 $144 +$45 (+46%)
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Florian Broska 69¢ 100¢ $99 $143 +$44 (+45%)
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Hubert Hurkacz 72¢ 96¢ $99 $132 +$33 (+34%)
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Katerina Siniakova 75¢ 80¢ $99 $106 +$7 (+7%)
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Elena Micic 43¢ 36¢ $99 $83 −$16 (-16%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Felix Gill 69¢ 50¢ $99 $73 −$26 (-27%)
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Francesca Pace 48¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $7 −$6 -80%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $100 +$66 +66%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $100 +$67 +67%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $100 −$79 -79%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $100 −$77 -77%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Jun 16 $101 −$75 -74%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $101 −$86 -86%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $100 −$67 -68%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $100 +$65 +65%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $100 −$90 -90%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $100 +$85 +85%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $100 +$90 +90%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $100 −$75 -74%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $100 −$78 -77%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $101 −$75 -75%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $101 −$92 -91%
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 16 $100 −$57 -57%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $100 −$77 -77%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $100 +$36 +36%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $92 −$60 -66%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $101 −$78 -78%
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea Jun 15 $100 +$34 +34%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $100 +$36 +36%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $100 +$36 +36%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $100 +$41 +41%
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova Jun 15 $100 +$36 +36%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $100 −$62 -62%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $100 −$62 -62%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $100 +$34 +34%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $100 +$40 +40%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $100 +$44 +44%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $100 +$84 +84%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $100 −$77 -76%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $100 −$64 -64%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $100 −$73 -73%
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 15 $100 +$36 +36%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $100 −$67 -67%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $100 −$64 -64%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $100 +$40 +40%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $100 +$57 +57%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $100 −$63 -62%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $100 −$75 -75%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $100 +$36 +36%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $100 −$52 -52%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $100 −$61 -61%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $100 +$35 +35%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $100 −$64 -64%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $100 −$88 -88%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $100 −$73 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg SELL Max Hans Rehberg 15¢ $1 13m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 14¢ $21 30m
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge BUY Elena Micic 43¢ $101 33m
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Katerina Siniakova 75¢ $100 34m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa SELL Mia Ristic 17¢ $23 44m
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova BUY Katarina Kuzmova 68¢ $100 48m
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 72¢ $100 52m
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer BUY Florian Broska 69¢ $100 55m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin SELL Juan Martin 11¢ $26 1h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley SELL Dane Sweeny 7¢ $15 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Kimberly Birrell 25¢ $32 1h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin BUY Juan Martin 41¢ $101 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Carlo Alberto Caniato 7¢ $10 1h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace BUY Francesca Pace 48¢ $101 1h
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand SELL Robin Bertrand 14¢ $26 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 12¢ $23 1h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 72¢ $100 1h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 60¢ $100 1h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 63¢ $100 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann SELL Matilde Jorge 13¢ $26 2h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu SELL Michael Zhu 4¢ $9 2h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 74¢ $7 2h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 59¢ $100 2h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 51¢ $100 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini SELL Lucrezia Stefanini 31¢ $43 2h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 75¢ $100 2h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti SELL Noemi Basiletti 15¢ $23 2h
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand BUY Robin Bertrand 52¢ $100 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann BUY Matilde Jorge 49¢ $101 2h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Dane Sweeny 46¢ $101 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $682.00 · official $682.00 (match) · 3500 history records