Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87cb…643a sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$32 (+1%) realized +$0 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate63%29W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day132.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$597now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$129
other 33% +$190
crypto 9% +$23
world 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (132 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +60.7% +45.4% 63% 41% -7.4%
≤30d 46 +60.7% +45.4% 63% 41% -7.4%
≤90d 46 +60.7% +45.4% 63% 41% -7.4%
all 46 +60.7% +45.4% 63% 41% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +45.4% 41% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here +31.4% 33% -16.2%
15% +18.7% 28% -24.3%
20% +7.1% 22% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +132% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$25 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$597
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses29 / 17
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions12
Markets (closed)46 / 59
History coverage2d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day132.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Egypt 95¢ 96¢ $129 $129 +$1 (+0%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? No 91¢ 90¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 45¢ 70¢ $45 $71 +$26 (+58%)
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+5%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Under 55¢ 57¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+5%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 79¢ 80¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Under 9¢ 9¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 70¢ 69¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Under 73¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 21 $341 −$2 -0%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $4 −$2 -52%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $14 +$37 +270%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $109 +$4 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $226 +$21 +10%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $3 +$79 +2400%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $12 +$13 +108%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 21 $57 −$40 -69%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $39 +$1 +3%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $26 −$19 -74%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $40 $0 -0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $13 −$1 -5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $23 +$4 +15%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $26 +$14 +55%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $23 +$7 +33%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 +$32 +641%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $20 +$52 +257%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$20 +50%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 20 $97 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $111 −$50 -45%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 20 $94 +$3 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $377 +$23 +6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $29 −$23 -82%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $50 −$18 -36%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $35 −$35 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $7 −$3 -43%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $159 −$145 -91%
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 20 $173 +$23 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $54 +$6 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $83 +$59 +70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $42 +$29 +67%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $9 +$3 +29%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Team to Take First Corner Jun 20 $8 +$6 +75%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $27 +$4 +14%
Scotland to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 20 $63 +$24 +38%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $18 −$18 -96%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6 +$7 +124%
Australia to score first vs. United States? Jun 19 $36 +$13 +36%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $48 +$2 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $546 +$25 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 89¢ $27 50m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 19¢ $2 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 8¢ $2 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 8¢ $16 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 8¢ $2 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 8¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? BUY No 91¢ $9 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $8 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $8 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? BUY No 91¢ $91 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $0 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $8 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $9 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 SELL Under 57¢ $12 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 80¢ $12 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $29 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 80¢ $17 1h
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 72¢ $21 1h
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 72¢ $14 1h
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 72¢ $13 1h
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 72¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 70¢ $35 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 81¢ $89 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 70¢ $53 2h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 98¢ $88 2h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 98¢ $10 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 73¢ $3 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 82¢ $124 2h
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $597.39 · official $597.40 (match) · 316 history records