Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87c7…d1b6 weather 546 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,284 (-13%) realized −$10,268 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate45%279W / 342L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Fees−$147est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$538now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 118d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% −$11,064
sports 16% +$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -66.1% -69.3% 10% 10% -73.0%
≤30d 188 -40.1% -45.8% 30% 30% -45.8%
≤90d 188 -40.1% -45.8% 30% 30% -45.8%
all 621 -12.9% -21.2% 45% 28% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 28% -31.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 23% -38.0%
15% -35.6% 20% -44.0%
20% -41.9% 18% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$87 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$538
Realized−$10,268
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses279 / 342
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$147
Open positions6
Markets (closed)621 / 546
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$141
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 621 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 53¢ 54¢ $212 $214 +$2 (+1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 59¢ 53¢ $118 $106 −$12 (-10%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 63¢ 62¢ $63 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 61¢ 60¢ $61 $60 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 56¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 38¢ $43 $38 −$4 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 341 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 1 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on February Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 15? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Jun 17 $800 −$800 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 11? Jun 17 $25 −$18 -71%
Rockets vs. Thunder Jun 17 $580 −$580 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on February Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 66°F or higher on February Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 13? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on February Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 18? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on February Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 14? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Clippers vs. Kings Jun 17 $390 −$390 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 16? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Jazz vs. Pacers Jun 17 $585 −$585 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 19? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 14? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on February 16? Jun 17 $323 −$323 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 66°F or higher on February Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 2 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Fe Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 18? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Fe Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 14? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on February 14 Jun 17 $214 −$214 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on February 16? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 20? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 16? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C or higher on February 13? Jun 17 $498 −$527 -106%
Grizzlies vs. Kings Jun 17 $510 −$510 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 15? Jun 17 $196 −$229 -117%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 15? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Clippers vs. Timberwolves Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 1 Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 82°F or higher on February 13 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 14? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 12? Jun 17 $290 −$290 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 14? Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 14? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 14? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Fe Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Fe Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Pacers vs. Bucks Jun 17 $520 −$520 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 1 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Fe Jun 17 $133 −$133 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 63¢ $64 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $58 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 61¢ $62 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 59¢ $119 30h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 59¢ $119 30h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $119 30h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $119 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 66¢ $133 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $211 3d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 53¢ $215 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $28 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $17 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $1 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $11 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $11 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $10 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $26 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 54¢ $109 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $133 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $103 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 5¢ $5 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 5¢ $0 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $125 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $199 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $215 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $182 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 58¢ $235 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 3¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 90¢ $32 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $537.99 · official $538.00 (match) · 3500 history records