Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:26:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
87 0x87c6…6623 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$5 (-10%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +105% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +86% what you keep after slip
Net edge+86%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$29
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$4
other 27% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+85.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +128.1% +106.4% 33% 33% +51.3%
≤30d 10 +105.3% +85.7% 30% 30% +36.1%
≤90d 10 +105.3% +85.7% 30% 30% +36.1%
all 10 +105.3% +85.7% 30% 30% +36.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +85.7% 30% +36.1%
10% +68.0% 30% +23.0%
15% +51.7% 30% +11.1%
20% +36.9% 30% +0.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +105% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$5 · ×3.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage11d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$30 +980%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -56%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$13 +420%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +308%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 28h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 29h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $16 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $21 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 4d
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Washington Mystics 5¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records