Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:22:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87c5…1acd crypto 742 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$692 (-6%) realized −$683 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate35%261W / 479L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day52.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$51
14 days−$141
30 days−$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$443
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -2.9% -12.1% 41% 22% -13.9%
≤30d 358 -1.8% -11.1% 35% 15% -12.8%
≤90d 740 -0.7% -10.2% 35% 22% -13.0%
all 740 -0.7% -10.2% 35% 22% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 22% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 15% -21.3%
15% -26.6% 8% -28.9%
20% -33.8% 3% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$683
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses261 / 479
Open positions2
Markets (closed)740 / 742
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day52.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 740 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 67¢ 52¢ $33 $26 −$7 (-21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 49¢ 48¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 34¢ 100¢ $7 $20 +$13 (+197%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $59 −$24 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $47 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $56 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $55 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 04 $54 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 04 $33 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 04 $43 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 04 $53 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $54 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 04 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 04 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 04 $22 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 04 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 04 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 03 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 03 $32 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 03 $9 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.00 · official $130.00 (match) · 3500 history records