Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:32:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x87c3…f3dd crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$209 (+1%) realized +$200 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate91%51W / 5L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$503per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$14
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$141
politics 8% −$44
economics 8% +$16
finance 8% +$28
other 5% +$40
world 2% +$15
tech 2% +$1
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 80% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 18 +2.7% -7.1% 94% 6% -8.7%
all 56 +1.7% -8.0% 91% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 2% -8.9%
10% -16.8% 2% -17.6%
15% -24.9% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$744) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$20 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.2 per $1 lost it wins $4.2
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$1,143
Realized+$200
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses51 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage246d
Avg bet$503
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $578 $577 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $313 $314 +$1 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $244 $252 +$8 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $423 +$6 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $979 +$8 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 05 $426 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 26 $284 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 23 $691 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? May 20 $81 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 20 $203 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? May 16 $79 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? May 07 $196 +$7 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 03 $552 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 27 $137 +$1 +1%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 25 $1,088 +$15 +1%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Apr 06 $15 +$5 +33%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 06 $148 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$60 in March? Apr 06 $609 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? Mar 30 $308 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 23-29? Mar 28 $759 +$13 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 26 $300 +$8 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 20 $969 +$4 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 15 $533 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 13? Mar 12 $213 +$10 +5%
SBF released from custody in 2026? Mar 11 $300 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 04 $734 +$10 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $140 end of February? Mar 02 $86 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? Mar 02 $146 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? Feb 27 $67 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February? Feb 26 $225 +$7 +3%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 25? Feb 23 $67 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on February 24? Feb 22 $599 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 23? Feb 22 $359 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 22 $983 +$29 +3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February? Feb 21 $12 $0 +1%
Trump out as President before 2027? Feb 06 $1,055 −$60 -6%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 02 $336 +$29 +9%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jan 01 $674 +$15 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 25 $336 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $508 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $474 +$23 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 03 $631 +$12 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 29 $49 +$4 +9%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $140 end of November? Nov 27 $7 $0 +1%
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? Nov 22 $345 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Nov 21 $344 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? Nov 15 $49 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 13? Nov 12 $198 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 13? Nov 12 $431 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 13? Nov 11 $744 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $118k November 3-9? Nov 10 $1,372 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 3-9? Nov 08 $1,371 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $122k November 3-9? Nov 07 $1,364 +$7 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $578 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $429 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $149 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $313 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $313 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $250 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $247 12d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $423 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $426 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $426 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $185 21d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $138 22d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $103 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $979 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $285 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $693 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $284 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $81 30d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $204 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $81 33d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $81 34d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $203 42d
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $203 44d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $691 48d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 100¢ $138 54d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 100¢ $552 55d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $552 55d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $79 62d
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $196 62d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $275 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,142.89 · official $1,142.89 (match) · 159 history records