Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:44:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87b5…8395 sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate83%34W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$14
other 15% +$6
crypto 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +2.6% -7.2% 85% 35% -3.3%
≤30d 34 +2.6% -7.2% 85% 35% -3.3%
≤90d 34 +2.6% -7.2% 85% 35% -3.3%
all 41 -2.3% -11.6% 83% 29% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 29% -9.4%
10% -20.1% 20% -18.1%
15% -27.8% 7% -26.0%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses34 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage111d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Deborah Chiesa 76¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $63 +$1 +2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +27%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $60 +$1 +1%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $1 $0 -32%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $43 +$16 +36%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $49 +$4 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $18 −$9 -54%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Anna Bondar Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $16 $0 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
ITF Hurghada: Anastasia Tikhonova vs Sandra Samir Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Will Chiefs win? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +8%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +17%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $39 +$4 +10%
FC Juárez vs. Atlas FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 28 $17 −$17 -100%
SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Feb 25 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 25 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 25 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 25 $11 $0 +3%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Giovanni Mpetshi Feb 25 $10 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Deborah Chiesa 88¢ $5 1h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Deborah Chiesa 56¢ $2 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 67¢ $2 3h
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu BUY Chenting Zhu 93¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 8h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 98¢ $58 9h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 95¢ $5 10h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 78¢ $2 12h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 82¢ $5 22h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 66¢ $1 24h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 77¢ $10 27h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 83¢ $2 32h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 33h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 98¢ $5 35h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 91¢ $3 35h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 92¢ $2 35h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 46h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 46h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu SELL Donna Vekic 100¢ $2 46h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Donna Vekic 93¢ $2 47h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 58¢ $5 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 75¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova SELL Barbora Krejcikova 50¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Barbora Krejcikova 72¢ $1 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $43 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $43 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 81¢ $9 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 73¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records