Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87af…84dc weather 97 markets active 6d ago coverage 625d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$36 (-14%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%37W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$3
14 days−$12
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 81% −$24
other 5% −$4
politics 5% −$9
sports 3% −$4
world 3% −$3
crypto 2% +$5
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -7.9% -16.7% 42% 42% -14.2%
≤30d 73 -11.1% -19.6% 41% 41% -17.9%
≤90d 88 -18.7% -26.4% 36% 36% -21.8%
all 96 -17.3% -25.2% 39% 36% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 36% -23.4%
10% -32.4% 36% -30.7%
15% -38.9% 32% -37.4%
20% -44.9% 26% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

625d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses37 / 59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage625d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 15 $3 +$3 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 10 $3 +$8 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 8? Jun 09 $3 +$3 +91%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 06 $2 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5? Jun 06 $2 +$3 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 5? Jun 06 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 06 $5 +$5 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 5? Jun 06 $5 +$5 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 6? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 +$13 +612%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 05 $4 +$10 +251%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $5 +$7 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? BUY No 51¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 49¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? BUY No 68¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 81¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? BUY No 77¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 BUY Yes 68¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 9? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 8? BUY No 79¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY Yes 21¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 9? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 9? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 8? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.14 · official $2.14 (match) · 156 history records