Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87ad…fd81 crypto 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 433d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,174 (-64%) realized −$12,945 · open −$229
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%34W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$898
14 days+$698
30 days+$698
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$12,052
crypto 26% −$1,929
sports 5% +$953
other 2% −$283
tech 0% −$69
economics 0% +$12
finance 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +9.5% -0.9% 31% 31% +59.5%
≤30d 15 -5.1% -14.1% 27% 27% +36.3%
≤90d 83 -34.2% -40.5% 27% 27% -72.5%
all 105 -25.7% -32.8% 32% 30% -68.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 30% -68.2%
10% -39.2% 29% -71.2%
15% -45.1% 29% -74.0%
20% -50.5% 26% -76.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$232 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

433d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$12,945
Unrealized−$229
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses34 / 71
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions5
Markets (closed)105 / 110
History coverage433d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 31¢ 4¢ $200 $24 −$176 (-88%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+57%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $39 $1 −$39 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $164 +$364 +222%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $306 +$199 +65%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $113 +$816 +723%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 24 $100 −$94 -94%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 21 $100 +$121 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 21 $100 +$102 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 21 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 19 $100 +$87 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 17 $210 −$204 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 17 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 15 $30 −$9 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$19 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 15 $40 −$24 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 14 $150 −$143 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 14 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 14 $100 +$71 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 13 $58 +$183 +315%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 13 $35 +$41 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 13 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 15, 2026? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 17, 2026? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 16, 2026? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 18, 2026? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 19, 2026? Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 13 $9,170 −$9,170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 13 $200 +$279 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $275 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $253 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $113 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $506 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 5d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $929 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 8d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.85 · official $219.89 (match) · 255 history records