Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
87 0x87ac…74a9 crypto 83 markets active 11h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate66%54W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$35
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$55
sports 14% +$29
other 8% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +31.5% +19.0% 70% 65% +6.9%
≤30d 23 +38.7% +25.5% 70% 65% +11.6%
≤90d 82 +3.7% -6.2% 66% 45% -10.4%
all 82 +3.7% -6.2% 66% 45% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 45% -10.4%
10% -15.2% 30% -19.0%
15% -23.4% 27% -26.8%
20% -30.9% 23% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses54 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage64d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$9 +140%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +121%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +238%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +246%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Draw at halftime? May 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 07 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 29 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 22 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 22 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 22 $5 +$14 +277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 21 $5 +$7 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 21 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 21 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 21 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 21 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 17 $8 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $10 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 41¢ $6 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $11 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 41¢ $5 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records