Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:37:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87aa…fe44 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$80 (-15%) realized −$81 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$27
other 20% −$49
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +38.0% +24.8% 27% 27% -25.3%
≤30d 11 +38.0% +24.8% 27% 27% -25.3%
≤90d 11 +38.0% +24.8% 27% 27% -25.3%
all 11 +38.0% +24.8% 27% 27% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.8% 27% -25.3%
10% +12.9% 27% -32.4%
15% +2.0% 27% -39.0%
20% -8.0% 27% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$49 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage5d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $56 −$55 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 +$78 +509%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 +$88 +344%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $39 +$142 +365%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $56 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $56 3h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 26h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $152 41h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 42h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $181 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $39 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.54 · official $55.54 (match) · 15 history records