Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:47:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87a8…445c crypto 647 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 165d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,306 (+4%) realized +$7,309 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%294W / 348L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$205est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$48
14 days−$144
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$4,448
world 21% +$2,189
other 6% −$142
sports 4% −$1,180
politics 4% +$993
finance 1% −$339
weather 1% −$19
tech 1% −$211
culture 1% −$27
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.4% -8.2% 50% 50% -23.8%
≤30d 33 -8.0% -16.7% 48% 48% -24.6%
≤90d 194 -9.0% -17.7% 37% 35% -15.1%
all 642 -5.8% -14.8% 46% 36% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 36% -6.7%
10% -22.9% 34% -15.6%
15% -30.4% 32% -23.8%
20% -37.2% 30% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$154 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$7,309
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses294 / 348
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$205
Open positions5
Markets (closed)642 / 647
History coverage165d ⚠
Avg bet$281
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 642 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $87 $85 −$2 (-3%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? No 1¢ 20¢ $2 $30 +$28 (+1421%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Up 59¢ 50¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 3¢ $35 $7 −$28 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $27 +$13 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $62 +$32 +52%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $200 −$89 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$2 +55%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $48 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $64 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$27 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$9 +124%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $55 −$32 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$20 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$16 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$14 +138%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $29 −$13 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$13 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $23 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 14 $66 −$64 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 14 $52 −$36 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 14 $54 +$58 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 14 $29 +$25 +86%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $153 −$124 -81%
Will "Ass" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experienc May 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 13 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 13 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 13 $10 +$23 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 11 $99 −$97 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 06 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 06 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 06 $5 −$2 -50%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 06 $5 −$1 -26%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 06 $27 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $9 2m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $40 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $27 46m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 1h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $25 1h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $2 1h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $62 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $200 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $48 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $72 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $80 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.60 · official $159.60 (match) · 3500 history records