Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

87 0x87a8…f9b0 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$20 (+52%) realized +$23 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip

Net edge+35%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate39%7W / 11L

Drawdown46%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day29.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+59.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+75.8%	+59.1%	39%	33%	-0.4%
≤30d	18	+75.8%	+59.1%	39%	33%	-0.4%
≤90d	18	+75.8%	+59.1%	39%	33%	-0.4%
all	18	+75.8%	+59.1%	39%	33%	-0.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover29.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+59.1%	33%	-0.4%
10% ← realistic here	+43.9%	28%	-10.0%
15%	+30.0%	28%	-18.7%
20%	+17.2%	28%	-26.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 72% · top 2 87% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +76% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +215% → late -64% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized+$23

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)39%

Wins / losses7 / 11

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage1d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day29.0

Drawdown46%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	46¢	8¢	$4	$1	−$3 (-84%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-95%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$3	+$1	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$2	+105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Jun 15	$4	+$6	+140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 15	$1	+$1	+101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 15	$1	+$27	+4042%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Jun 15	$1	+$1	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 15	$1	$0	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	BUY Down	22¢	$1	10m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	46¢	$4	1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	38¢	$4	1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$1	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$2	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$2	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Down	13¢	$1	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$1	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$2	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$1	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$3	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	SELL Down	46¢	$28	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$1	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$1	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$1	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$1	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$1	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$1	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$1	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.65 · official $0.67 (match) · 45 history records