Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87a6…03ca other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$12 (+2%) realized +$14 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$48
crypto 16% +$24
sports 6% +$12
world 1% −$6
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +68.6% +52.5% 50% 50% -3.5%
≤30d 34 +26.7% +14.6% 38% 38% -13.7%
≤90d 34 +26.7% +14.6% 38% 38% -13.7%
all 34 +26.7% +14.6% 38% 38% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.6% 38% -13.7%
10% +3.7% 38% -22.0%
15% -6.4% 38% -29.5%
20% -15.5% 35% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +78% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$12 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage10d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$34 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$21 +104%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$7 +46%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $24 +$26 +109%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $7 +$17 +231%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $57 −$57 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$37 +180%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$12 +70%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 −$11 -80%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$23 +1116%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +72%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -28%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 +$14 +114%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? Jun 12 $4 +$8 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 4h
Argentina to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 4h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 5h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 6h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 2¢ $2 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $57 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $30 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $17 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.51 · official $52.51 · 62 history records