Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:52:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87a3…4009 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-5%) realized −$29 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$90
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$86
other 42% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +50.5% +36.2% 100% 100% +25.1%
≤30d 12 -5.3% -14.3% 67% 67% -14.1%
≤90d 12 -5.3% -14.3% 67% 67% -14.1%
all 12 -5.3% -14.3% 67% 67% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 67% -14.1%
10% -22.5% 50% -22.3%
15% -30.0% 42% -29.8%
20% -36.9% 8% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late +51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$32 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)12 / 20
History coverage10d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Cabo Verde 86¢ 86¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 97¢ $5 $19 +$14 (+284%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 66¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 94¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 22¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-42%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 1¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $127 +$55 +44%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $7 +$3 +48%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$9 +37%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $16 +$7 +44%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $55 +$9 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $91 −$90 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 +$9 +23%
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 86¢ $99 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $70 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $12 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 69¢ $127 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY 72¢ $25 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $91 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19 BUY 31¢ $20 7d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 69¢ $16 7d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 85¢ $55 7d
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY South Africa 90¢ $50 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $41 9d
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 56¢ $10 9d
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $9 9d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 9d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 25¢ $5 9d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 46¢ $5 9d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 52¢ $10 9d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 62¢ $15 9d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $7 9d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 70¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.43 · official $211.43 (match) · 28 history records