Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
87 0x87a3…5857 sports 234 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$877 (-3%) realized −$887 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%109W / 124L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$342est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$321
7 days−$303
14 days−$982
30 days−$2,231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$836
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -11.8% -20.2% 43% 36% -22.3%
≤30d 58 -28.4% -35.2% 38% 33% -29.1%
≤90d 189 -8.9% -17.6% 51% 42% -12.5%
all 233 -12.7% -21.0% 47% 39% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 39% -12.5%
10% -28.6% 35% -20.9%
15% -35.5% 28% -28.5%
20% -41.8% 21% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$67 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$887
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses109 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$342
Open positions1
Markets (closed)233 / 234
History coverage119d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs ECHO 30¢ 33¢ $102 $113 +$10 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $301 +$321 +107%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $191 −$191 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $72 +$31 +42%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $250 −$249 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $144 −$68 -48%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $92 +$144 +156%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $183 −$180 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Gr Jun 14 $8 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $134 −$134 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $345 +$5 +1%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $152 −$149 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $160 +$240 +150%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOUD vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO1) - South America Lea Jun 13 $31 +$9 +30%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $4 +$1 +23%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $111 −$26 -24%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $66 −$64 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $165 +$87 +53%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $122 −$120 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $2 +$1 +59%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $112 −$112 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $22 +$2 +8%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $398 −$49 -12%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 08 $112 +$38 +34%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $160 −$157 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $156 −$154 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $156 +$236 +152%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 06 $215 −$85 -40%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers Jun 06 $230 −$230 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 05 $59 −$17 -29%
Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 05 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $40 −$39 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $212 +$57 +27%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $132 −$112 -85%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 05 $68 +$45 +66%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $8 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier Jun 04 $62 −$61 -98%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $216 −$213 -99%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $234 +$88 +38%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playof Jun 04 $69 −$62 -91%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Gold vs Ghost Gaming GC (BO3) - VCT Game C Jun 03 $48 −$47 -98%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Cl Jun 03 $4 +$1 +13%
Valorant: University War vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re Jun 02 $170 −$164 -97%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 02 $645 −$641 -99%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 01 $627 +$668 +107%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner May 31 $305 +$166 +54%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe S May 31 $381 −$380 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 31 $127 −$125 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 30¢ $4 50m
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 30¢ $100 50m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $621 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 41¢ $112 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 54¢ $189 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 62¢ $65 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 62¢ $32 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 62¢ $94 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 77¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 68¢ $53 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Shifters 35¢ $11 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Shifters 35¢ $70 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 62¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 62¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 62¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 62¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 62¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 62¢ $19 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 62¢ $19 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 62¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 62¢ $71 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 46¢ $124 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Team Vitality 15¢ $3 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Team Vitality 17¢ $14 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Team Vitality 17¢ $4 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Team Vitality 19¢ $3 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Team Vitality 19¢ $1 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Team Vitality 24¢ $18 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Team Vitality 24¢ $25 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Team Vitality 23¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.62 · official $112.62 (match) · 914 history records