Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:24:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x87a2…c07d crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%45W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$6
crypto 11% +$2
other 3% $0
politics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 58 +0.1% -9.4% 78% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses45 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage535d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 03 $59 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in April? May 05 $64 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 01 $56 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $7 $0 +1%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? Dec 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Sep 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 03 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 03 $6 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 21 $68 $0 -0%
Will Jaxson Dart be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in th Apr 13 $50 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $6 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Apr 03 $21 $0 +2%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $5,460 −$5 -0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $420 - 425b on February 28? Mar 04 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 28d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 30d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 61d
Will BNB reach $800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $64 62d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 99¢ $10 90d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 90d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $56 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $21 120d
Will Solana reach $170 in February? BUY No 100¢ $35 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $5 149d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 149d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $52 149d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 180d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $12 181d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $58 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? BUY No 100¢ $48 211d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $17 241d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $41 241d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 271d
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? BUY No 100¢ $17 272d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $47 273d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $12 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? BUY No 100¢ $54 302d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $13 332d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $26 332d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 99¢ $33 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $23 363d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 392d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 392d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.31 · official $63.31 (match) · 121 history records