Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
87 0x879e…060c crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$310 (-3%) realized −$310 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$588per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 109d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$397
crypto 26% −$283
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -22.1% -29.5% 53% 47% -13.6%
≤30d 17 -22.1% -29.5% 53% 47% -13.6%
≤90d 17 -22.1% -29.5% 53% 47% -13.6%
all 17 -22.1% -29.5% 53% 47% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 47% -13.6%
10% -36.2% 47% -21.9%
15% -42.4% 41% -29.4%
20% -48.0% 18% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$197 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$310
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage109d
Avg bet$588
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $313 +$77 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $206 +$96 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $311 +$257 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $310 −$267 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $209 −$199 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $207 +$171 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$70 +68%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $6,900 +$103 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $391 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $313 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $302 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $568 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $207 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $142 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $207 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $106 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $142 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $6,966 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $1 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $35 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $1,900 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $5,000 27h
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 9¢ $500 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records