Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:19:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x879e…99e6 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$2
other 20% −$2
politics 12% $0
sports 5% $0
culture 4% +$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.4% -10.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 16 -1.1% -10.5% 6% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 16 -1.1% -10.5% 6% 0% -9.9%
all 37 -0.8% -10.3% 24% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -9.9%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage304d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $41 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $41 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $3 $0 -8%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $38 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $54 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 30 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 30 $27 +$2 +6%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jan 30 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 23 $8 −$4 -47%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 05 $2 $0 +6%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $3 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 26 $1 $0 +6%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $2 $0 -1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 24 $34 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $41 31m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 85¢ $41 32m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $41 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $41 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $37 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $38 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 14d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 15d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 15d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records