Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:56:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x879d…cd1e crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$132 (-15%) realized −$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day60.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -27.8% -34.7% 35% 32% -33.8%
≤30d 31 -27.8% -34.7% 35% 32% -33.8%
≤90d 31 -27.8% -34.7% 35% 32% -33.8%
all 31 -27.8% -34.7% 35% 32% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.7% 32% -33.8%
10% ← realistic here -41.0% 26% -40.2%
15% -46.7% 26% -46.0%
20% -51.9% 23% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$21 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$24 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$17 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$18 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$18 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$39 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$23 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$31 +123%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records