Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x879d…713e world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$3
other 19% $0
politics 7% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 -0.7% -10.2% 44% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 16 -0.7% -10.2% 44% 0% -10.0%
all 34 -0.3% -9.8% 53% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage452d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $57 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $28 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $54 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $48 −$4 -9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $31 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $62 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $4 −$1 -12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? Jun 03 $12 $0 +3%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers be Eastern Conference champions? May 30 $11 $0 +4%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? May 24 $11 $0 -0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +4%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 30 $12 $0 -2%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 23 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $6 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $21 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $27 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 15h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $2 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $28 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $24 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $30 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $30 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $2 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $13 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $32 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $31 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $35 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $35 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $17 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $13 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $31 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records