Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
87 0x879b…9cb2 sports 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$230 (+1%) realized +$907 · open −$677
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$436per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,741
7 days+$2,173
14 days+$2,173
30 days+$2,173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$889
other 5% +$107
world 1% +$573
politics 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +99.2% +80.2% 82% 82% +33.6%
≤30d 11 +99.2% +80.2% 82% 82% +33.6%
≤90d 11 +99.2% +80.2% 82% 82% +33.6%
all 37 +14.9% +4.0% 57% 49% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.0% 49% -6.7%
10% -6.0% 46% -15.7%
15% -15.0% 32% -23.8%
20% -23.4% 27% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$579) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$265 vs −$318 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$1,252
Realized+$907
Unrealized−$677
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions5
Markets (closed)37 / 42
History coverage596d
Avg bet$436
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner FURIA 51¢ 58¢ $510 $585 +$75 (+15%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 40¢ 22¢ $615 $331 −$285 (-46%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 63¢ 57¢ $231 $210 −$20 (-9%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner EDward Gaming 25¢ 10¢ $243 $101 −$142 (-59%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 33¢ $330 $25 −$305 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Damir Dzum Jun 20 $716 +$284 +40%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $92 +$508 +550%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $893 +$107 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $203 +$197 +97%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $257 +$573 +223%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $244 +$356 +146%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $579 +$429 +74%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $378 +$122 +32%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $780 −$780 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $368 +$432 +117%
Cubs vs. Brewers Oct 07 $248 +$195 +79%
Kings vs. Wizards Apr 04 $708 −$708 -100%
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Apr 04 $500 −$500 -100%
Jazz vs. Rockets Apr 04 $254 −$254 -100%
Sharks vs. Kings Apr 02 $105 +$5 +5%
Tennessee vs. Houston Mar 31 $1,409 +$47 +3%
Nets vs. Wizards Mar 30 $529 −$166 -31%
Cháirez vs. Vergara Mar 30 $155 −$155 -100%
Mavericks vs. Bulls Mar 30 $318 −$318 -100%
Alabama vs. Duke Mar 30 $608 +$32 +5%
Moreno vs. Erceg Mar 30 $865 +$346 +40%
Lakers vs. Grizzlies Mar 30 $429 −$5 -1%
Rodríguez vs. Borjas Mar 30 $440 +$818 +186%
Texas Tech vs. Florida Mar 30 $1,004 +$345 +34%
Thunder vs. Mavericks Jan 18 $562 −$562 -100%
Rockets vs. Kings Jan 17 $195 −$195 -100%
Hawks vs. Bulls Jan 16 $250 +$507 +203%
Rockets vs. Thunder Dec 15 $593 −$593 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Oilers Dec 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Dec 14 $177 −$177 -100%
Nets vs. Grizzlies Dec 14 $522 +$139 +27%
Warriors vs. Celtics Nov 07 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" 20 or more times during Pittsburgh rally Nov 06 $44 +$12 +28%
Thunder vs. Clippers Nov 03 $28 +$16 +56%
Warriors vs. Rockets Nov 03 $524 −$496 -95%
Celtics vs. Hornets Nov 02 $425 +$100 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 63¢ $43 4m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 63¢ $170 4m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 63¢ $18 4m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $80 7m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 25¢ $6 7m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 25¢ $162 7m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 51¢ $517 9m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 41¢ $403 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 77¢ $775 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $615 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $337 2h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Damir Dzum BUY Damir Dzumhur 71¢ $716 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $203 14h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 15¢ $92 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $893 14h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 40¢ $244 14h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $53 41h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Juan Estevez 75¢ $378 42h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 46¢ $12 42h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 56¢ $567 42h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $12 42h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $780 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $29 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $12 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $39 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $6 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $111 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $82 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $83 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,251.90 · official $1,311.10 · 152 history records