Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

87
0x8797…bbbe
politics · 464 markets active 0h ago
6.0score
+$38,696 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$30,412 · open +$6,313
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42,745
Realized+$30,412
Unrealized+$6,313
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses199 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions39
Markets (closed)425 / 464
History coverage509d
Avg bet$628
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 39 History 425 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,716
14 days+$1,802
30 days+$9,908
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 54¢ 80¢ $16,468 $24,742 +$8,274 (+50%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 62¢ 56¢ $9,286 $8,309 −$977 (-11%)
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No 46¢ 43¢ $2,118 $1,960 −$158 (-7%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 84¢ 72¢ $1,688 $1,457 −$231 (-14%)
Will Ralph Nwobi advance from the CA-07 primary election? No 86¢ 100¢ $755 $876 +$122 (+16%)
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? No 63¢ 76¢ $561 $673 +$111 (+20%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 20¢ 56¢ $217 $603 +$386 (+178%)
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary by less than 5%? No 82¢ 100¢ $456 $556 +$100 (+22%)
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Yes 57¢ 68¢ $436 $527 +$91 (+21%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 84¢ 72¢ $549 $474 −$75 (-14%)
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary by more than 5%? No 93¢ 100¢ $294 $316 +$22 (+8%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $359 $293 −$66 (-18%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $329 $285 −$44 (-13%)
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? Yes 47¢ 55¢ $207 $241 +$35 (+17%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? No 80¢ 82¢ $188 $193 +$5 (+3%)
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? No 22¢ 7¢ $557 $186 −$371 (-67%)
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? Yes 73¢ 97¢ $131 $174 +$43 (+32%)
Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass? No 78¢ 86¢ $128 $141 +$13 (+11%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes 47¢ 86¢ $71 $131 +$60 (+84%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 39¢ 8¢ $592 $115 −$477 (-81%)
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes 65¢ 54¢ $75 $62 −$13 (-18%)
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 49¢ 60¢ $38 $46 +$8 (+22%)
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 58¢ 94¢ $24 $39 +$15 (+62%)
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 76¢ 83¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+9%)
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026? Yes 33¢ 20¢ $57 $35 −$21 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Daniella Levine Cava be the Democratic nominee for Florida Govern Jun 09 $28 +$4 +16%
Will Yuh-Line Niou be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Jun 09 $37 +$7 +20%
Will Calvin Lee advance from the CA-34 primary election? Jun 09 $21 +$19 +90%
Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31? Jun 09 $371 +$585 +158%
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31? Jun 09 $1,523 +$442 +29%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 09 $114 +$1,177 +1037%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $14,523 −$533 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 07 $691 +$14 +2%
Will Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30? Jun 01 $274 +$86 +32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 28 $1,729 +$182 +10%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 28 $156 +$15 +10%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May May 28 $164 +$10 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $21,641 −$543 -2%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 27 $43 −$43 -100%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 25 $160 −$160 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $11,001 +$10,016 +91%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima May 24 $487 +$232 +48%
Will Ederson be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis May 23 $7 +$40 +546%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $492 +$578 +117%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22? May 18 $951 −$670 -70%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele May 14 $40 −$38 -96%
Kash Patel out by May 31? May 13 $2,623 −$1,420 -54%
Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans? May 13 $147 −$89 -60%
Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West V May 13 $169 +$63 +37%
Will Donald Trump visit Alaska in 2026? May 12 $226 −$220 -97%
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia? May 12 $50 +$17 +34%
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? May 12 $65 +$7 +11%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-Ma May 12 $291 −$224 -77%
Will Howard Lutnick be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027 May 12 $30 −$29 -97%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? May 11 $615 +$106 +17%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10? May 11 $241 +$42 +17%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 08 $3,670 −$109 -3%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? May 03 $861 +$125 +14%
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta May 03 $2,195 +$501 +23%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 2 May 02 $438 +$257 +59%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se Apr 30 $125 +$192 +154%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 29 $3,263 +$196 +6%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Apr 29 $65 −$65 -100%
Kash Patel out by April 30? Apr 29 $228 −$98 -43%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Apr 29 $1,770 −$1,417 -80%
Will MrBeast get married by December 31? Apr 28 $356 +$485 +136%
Will Ralph Nwobi advance from the CA-07 primary election? Apr 27 $755 +$122 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 27 $14,575 +$4,389 +30%
Will Buffalo Bills draft Ty Simpson in the 2026 pro football draft? Apr 25 $310 +$14 +4%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20 Apr 24 $82 −$82 -100%
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30? Apr 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%? Apr 22 $640 +$154 +24%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 9-12%? Apr 22 $218 +$31 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce Keith Sonderling as the next United States Apr 21 $109 +$4 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 37% +$20,805
politics 24% +$4,331
other 22% +$17,836
sports 7% −$2,217
economics 4% −$2,709
tech 2% +$480
culture 2% +$1,250
crypto 1% −$2,982
finance 0% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating el BUY Yes 72¢ $20 3m
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 15m
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 16m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $862 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 77¢ $670 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 76¢ $261 26h
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica BUY No 66¢ $30 3d
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the South Carolina Republican BUY No 93¢ $295 3d
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the South Carolina Republican BUY No 82¢ $459 3d
Will Daniella Levine Cava be the Democratic nominee for Florida Govern SELL No 100¢ $32 3d
Will Yuh-Line Niou be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? SELL No 100¢ $35 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,691 3d
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 84¢ $553 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $69 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $1,671 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 90¢ $705 5d
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating el BUY Yes 60¢ $10 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 88¢ $378 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 13¢ $30 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 21¢ $50 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 19¢ $143 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 22¢ $32 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 87¢ $313 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $1,564 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $1,791 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $2,809 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $137 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +168.6% +143.0% 88% 75% -0.6%
≤30d 25 +61.8% +46.4% 64% 52% +7.9%
≤90d 67 +61.2% +45.8% 67% 54% +7.6%
all 425 +30.8% +18.4% 47% 38% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.4% 38% +2.9%
10% +7.1% 32% -7.0%
15% -3.3% 25% -16.0%
20% -12.8% 21% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42,745.33 · official $42,745.33 (match) · 3500 history records