Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
87 0x8797…d2b1 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$90 (+10%) realized +$97 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +92% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +74% what you keep after slip
Net edge+74%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+73.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +92.1% +73.8% 40% 40% +8.3%
≤90d 5 +92.1% +73.8% 40% 40% +8.3%
all 5 +92.1% +73.8% 40% 40% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +73.8% 40% +8.3%
10% +57.2% 40% -2.1%
15% +42.0% 40% -11.6%
20% +28.1% 20% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +92% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$11 · ×5.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.5 per $1 lost it wins $3.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized+$97
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage27d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $412 $409 −$2 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vincent Keymer win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 02 $5 +$33 +635%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 02 $206 +$82 +40%
Will Alireza Firouzja win Norway Chess 2026? May 27 $203 −$30 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $416 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 4d
Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $38 20d
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? SELL No 98¢ $289 20d
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Norway Chess 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Vincent Keymer win Norway Chess 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 24d
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Norway Chess 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? BUY No 68¢ $206 26d
Will Alireza Firouzja win Norway Chess 2026? SELL No 54¢ $174 26d
Will Alireza Firouzja win Norway Chess 2026? BUY No 61¢ $203 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.84 · official $504.84 (match) · 18 history records