Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:56:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8796…4b9a sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$483 (-7%) realized −$925 · open +$442
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$739per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -26.9% -33.8% 25% 25% -27.8%
≤30d 8 -26.9% -33.8% 25% 25% -27.8%
≤90d 8 -26.9% -33.8% 25% 25% -27.8%
all 8 -26.9% -33.8% 25% 25% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 25% -27.8%
10% -40.2% 25% -34.7%
15% -45.9% 25% -41.0%
20% -51.2% 12% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$155 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4,442
Realized−$925
Unrealized+$442
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$739
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 100¢ $4,000 $4,442 +$442 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $507 −$24 -5%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $303 +$114 +38%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $506 +$288 +57%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $304 −$300 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $305 −$3 -1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $102 −$4 -4%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $305 −$300 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $304 −$300 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $4,012 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $483 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $507 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $303 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $304 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $506 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $302 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 34¢ $98 41h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $305 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $102 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $305 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $304 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,442.22 · official $4,442.22 (match) · 14 history records