Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:04:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8796…848f world 34 markets active 2d ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$15
politics 13% $0
sports 3% +$1
tech 3% $0
other 2% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.7% -4.4% 20% 20% -4.5%
≤30d 17 +3.7% -6.2% 35% 12% -7.6%
≤90d 18 +3.7% -6.2% 39% 11% -7.6%
all 33 +2.5% -7.3% 39% 6% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 6% -7.8%
10% -16.2% 6% -16.6%
15% -24.3% 3% -24.7%
20% -31.7% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.98 per $1 lost it wins $4.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage250d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 54¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $104 +$16 +15%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $79 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $69 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $57 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $18 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $44 −$2 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $54 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $4 $0 +4%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $7 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Dec 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $7 $0 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 23 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 19 $1 $0 +7%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 19 $14 $0 +3%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in October? Oct 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 09 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 45h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $52 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $53 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $26 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $17 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $42 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $52 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $16 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $15 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $14 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $47 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $7 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $46 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $24 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $28 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $11 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $30 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $17 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $57 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.16 · official $68.00 (match) · 126 history records