Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:16:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8794…a0c2 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$2
other 17% −$1
weather 6% −$3
sports 6% $0
tech 5% +$1
politics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 0% -8.9%
all 30 -3.0% -12.2% 53% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage473d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 52¢ 54¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 77¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $35 +$1 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $40 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $36 +$2 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 27 $8 $0 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Nicușor Dan win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian p May 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 20 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 18 $9 $0 -1%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 31 $11 $0 -1%
Will Kentucky win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8? Mar 07 $11 $0 +3%
Wild vs. Kraken Mar 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 5? Mar 04 $18 −$3 -20%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on February 27? Mar 04 $16 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $8 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $24 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $36 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $22 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $13 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $6 29h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $30 29h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $35 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $39 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $40 35h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $40 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $39 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $36 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $26 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $10 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $16 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $20 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $39 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Walmart buy TikTok? SELL No 100¢ $8 353d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $2 357d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.17 · official $34.17 (match) · 79 history records