trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 44% | 0% | -8.9% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 44% | 0% | -8.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 44% | 0% | -8.9% |
| all | 30 | -3.0% | -12.2% | 53% | 0% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.2% | 0% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -20.6% | 0% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -28.3% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -35.3% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | No | 52¢ | 54¢ | $32 | $33 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 77¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-20%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 14 | $35 | +$1 | +3% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 14 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $40 | −$2 | -4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 12 | $36 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? | Dec 11 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 11 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Walmart buy TikTok? | Jun 27 | $8 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 03 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 06 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian p | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 06 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Apr 20 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 20 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? | Apr 19 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? | Apr 18 | $9 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Meta buy TikTok? | Apr 17 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Mar 31 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Kentucky win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 27 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? | Mar 26 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? | Mar 16 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? | Mar 15 | $15 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8? | Mar 07 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Wild vs. Kraken | Mar 06 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 5? | Mar 04 | $18 | −$3 | -20% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on February 27? | Mar 04 | $16 | +$1 | +4% |