Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8792…4174 weather 366 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$879 (+0%) realized −$2,690 · open +$3,569
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate77%275W / 80L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$659per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$46,922now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,919
7 days+$3,942
14 days−$10,963
30 days−$4,316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% +$1,556
weather 10% −$1,337
tech 1% +$155
other 0% +$42
economics 0% −$16
finance 0% −$1
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +16.6% +5.5% 100% 18% +77.6%
≤30d 166 -24.7% -31.8% 61% 17% -12.2%
≤90d 355 -6.0% -15.0% 77% 19% -11.0%
all 355 -6.0% -15.0% 77% 19% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 19% -11.0%
10% -23.1% 8% -19.5%
15% ← realistic here -30.6% 5% -27.3%
20% -37.4% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$379 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$46,922
Realized−$2,690
Unrealized+$3,569
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses275 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)355 / 366
History coverage57d
Avg bet$659
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 92¢ $29,891 $33,484 +$3,592 (+12%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 91¢ $6,559 $7,649 +$1,090 (+17%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 78¢ $3,014 $3,219 +$205 (+7%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 88¢ 85¢ $975 $942 −$33 (-3%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 48¢ $1,111 $765 −$346 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $211 $213 +$2 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 69¢ 13¢ $923 $176 −$747 (-81%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $167 $169 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? No 96¢ 96¢ $147 $147 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 21? No 98¢ 99¢ $130 $133 +$2 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 29¢ 4¢ $225 $27 −$198 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 20 $165 +$3 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $240 +$20 +8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $3,332 +$3,894 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $44 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $53 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $81 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$9 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $17,755 −$17,755 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $30,994 +$2,865 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 23? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 28? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 24? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 27? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 27? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on May 2 Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 18? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 14? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2? Jun 06 $25 −$14 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 15? Jun 06 $21 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 26? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 26? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 17? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 20? Jun 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 18? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 14? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or higher on May 28? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 14? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 14? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 14? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 15? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 13? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 23? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 27? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 23? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 22? Jun 06 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 23? Jun 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 26? Jun 06 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 1? Jun 06 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 23? Jun 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 26? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 28? Jun 06 $470 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 26? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 27? Jun 06 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 27? Jun 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $69 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $219 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $20 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $7 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $198 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $2,700 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $148 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $130 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $206 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $351 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $171 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 88¢ $968 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $7 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $57 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $124 13h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $1,151 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $3,185 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $7,226 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $1,130 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $237 26h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $81 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 98¢ $11 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $63 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 40¢ $42 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 98¢ $13 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 98¢ $73 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46,922.41 · official $46,922.41 (match) · 1998 history records